Have older folks gone Republican? | Arkansas News

John Brummett ponders why seniors shifted their votes in 2008 to the GOP. They have generally supported the Dems because of Social Security and Medicare. But seniors now tend to vote Republican. Why? Brummett has his opinion, but I think the reason was health care reform, which was financed in part by cuts in Medicare. This issue hit seniors hard. One of my continual problems is the need to deal with health insurance issues. Everyone knows that both Social Security and Medicare are in serious trouble, but the Democrats don't seem anxious to agree on any kind of fix. You may remember also that Obama made no effort to hide his dislike for Medicare Advantage plans.

The Democrats have clearly over-sold their welfare state, and people realize now that it can't be maintained indefinitely.

Reform-minded young golfers

John Brummett puts Lu Hardin in context. He was part of a group of reform-minded state senators who challenged the status quo in the 1980s and 1990s. Several interesting names are mentioned: Mike Beebe, Bill Gwatney, and Nick Wilson.

Talk Business: According to John Brummett the 2010 census reflects major shifts for Arkansas. We are no longer a rural state, we are now suburban or metropolitan. Northwest Arkansas and central Arkansas are tied as leading population centers. As a result, the 2010 election was a "sea change." Arkansas is no longer a Democratic state. It may be a swing state.

These are all huge changes that will grow and dominate the decades ahead. See Brummett's column here. I like his title: "Not Your Father's Arkansas." It's not your father's Democrat party either.

What is striking too is that the population loss for eastern and southern (especially southeast) Arkansas has continued. This migration began during and after World War II as people sought jobs in northern and western states and it has not stopped yet.

I believe these population trends will more closely tie Arkansas with the culture of the Ozark Plateau and Ouachita Mountains, leaving behind the Delta and the southern counties.

John Brummett comments on the on-going conflicts in the Little Rock educational system. Despite all the feel-good celebration of 1957, the system is faced with serious conflicts. You have the business community, the educational establishment, the teachers' union, white parents, black parents, magnet schools, charter schools, etc.

And a new website has sprung up: speakuplittlerock. One of their recent posts is titled "Little Rock School District: A Wasted Investment."

John Brummett does another of his "arrow" columns. Blanche Lincoln is a goner, he says. Joyce Elliott gets an up arrow.

John Brummett says that the gap between Lincoln and Boozman will close as the election approaches this fall.

John Brummett predicts that the Arkansas 2nd Congressional race between Joyce Elliott and Tim Griffin will be a "holy war."

John Brummett says that all the runoffs today are tossups. No one can predict their outcome.

Jason Tolbert's take is here. 

John Brummett compares the Lincoln/Halter race with the 1972 Senate race between John McClellan and David Pryor. The two races are similar. Pryor was the young turk who was expected to win, but the old bull McClellan tore him up in a debate in which McClellan went after Pryor's labor supporters. Lincoln needs to agree to a debate, and quickly. She should be prepared to attack, attack, and attack his labor connections.

John Brummett and his arrows on Arkansas political races.

John Brummett on Blanche Lincoln's derivatives proposal: "nonsensical."

Arkansas Watch: John Brummett doesn't know Jack about the Arkansas Senate candidates.

John Brummett, via Jason Tolbert's blog, says that tonight's debate between Blanche and Bill will be tame. The reason, he believes, is that they are both cowards. They prefer other people to do their dirty work.

Watch KATV tonight at 7:00 p.m.

John Brummett: The Lincoln/ Halter race is just a farce. "These clowns average about four lies or absurdities a day, fairly evenly divided. "

John Brummett on the Lincoln/ Halter race.

John Brummett describes the Lincoln/Halter primary coming up in May as the "most thoroughly nationalized race in Arkansas political history." Brummett is ecstatic, saying that Halter is for the public option, card check, raising the estate tax.
The war between the Democratic left and the Democratic center has come to Arkansas, a debate driven from the left in red-state Arkansas. 

John Brummett predicts that eventually the Medicaid deal that Ben Nelson got for Nebraska will be every state's deal. So it doesn't matter that Blanche Lincoln didn't hold up Harry Reid like Nelson did.

One question circling the Arkansas blogosphere is why didn't Harry Reid give Blanche Lincoln something for her vote on health care? Apparently every Senator was supposed to get something, you know? Senator Reid himself called Arkansas columnist John Brummett to tell him that Blanche looked out for Wal-Mart's health-care costs. Blummett believes that Blanche gave Reid his phone number.

Jason Tolbert adds, "It seems to me that if an incumbent Senator up for reelection next year hurriedly implores the Majority Leader to call an columnist back home about a blog post he has written, then that Senator is highly concerned on her reelection campaign."

Apparently Blanche wanted it known that she did get something for her vote.

John Brummett, an Arkansas columist, writes about Dick Morris.

What Arkansas thinks

John Brummett has a new column on an Arkansas opinion poll put out by Talk Business Quarterly, a new publication. Here are some of his analysis of the data:

Blanche Lincoln faces an uphill battle for re-election because the people of Arkansas don't want a government health option. Despite the fact that they have Medicare, etc, they are not totally sold on government health insurance, is my guess. Brummett says that Lincoln's current negative rating is 46 percent compared to a 42 percent positive rating. Her new chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture Committee has actually hurt, rather than helped her. Besides Republican opposition, she may face a Democratic challenger, lieutenant governor Bill Halter.