Barone on demographic trends

Michael Barone discusses America's future demographic trends. I've always found migration to be a fascinating subject.

Michael Barone on the Obama campaign

Michael Barone analyzes the Obama campaign at this point.

Barone on James Q. Wilson

Barone sums up the life and contributions of James Q. Wilson, whose insight improved America.

'via Blog this'

Barone: Romney "clinched" the nomination

Michael Barone reviews last night's GOP debate:

At about 10:28pm tonight, as Mitt Romney pivoted from a question on tax loopholes and started in with, “the real issue is vision,” I had recorded this thought in my notes, “He just clinched the nomination.”

I fail to understand why Republicans tolerate someone like George Stephanopoulos as moderator.

For more on George's lack of fairness during the debate see here. 

Barone on the debates

Michael Barone gives his reaction to last night's GOP debates.
He says, "ABC moderators Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos were perhaps overdosed with saccharine." Overdosed? Or their usual dose?

That's corny

Michael Barone explains why Mitt Romney sounds corny.

Michael Barone: The rules of political campaigning are changing for the 2012 election.

Herman Cain: contender

Michael Barone wants to raise Cain to the "contender status" of candidates.

Jennifer Rubin is cautious.

This isn't politics, LOL

Michael Barone on Obama's speech:

When Barack Obama says, “This isn’t political grandstanding,” you have a pretty good clue that that is exactly what it is. Lest anyone doubt that, consider this from the third-to-last paragraph. “You should pass it. And I intend to take that message to every corner of the country.”

The speech fiasco

Michael Barone:

I can't remember a more stunning rebuke of a president by a congressional leader than Speaker John Boehner's refusal to agree to Barack Obama's demand -- er, request -- that he summon a joint session of Congress to hear the president's latest speech on the economy at 8 p.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 7.
Obama's request was regarded as a clever move by some wise guys in the left blogosphere since that was the exact time of a long-scheduled Republican presidential candidate debate at the Reagan Library. Take that, you guys!
But Boehner smoothly responded that, with Congress reconvening late that afternoon, the security sweep necessary for a presidential visit would be impossible, and invited the president to speak on Thursday. White House officials quickly agreed, scheduling the speech at 7 p.m. Eastern to avoid overlap with the first game of the National Football League season.
Not such a big deal, some people are saying. I disagree. I think it illustrates several of the weaknesses of this presidency.

Michigan vs Texas

Michael Barone discusses the political economy of the Midwest, contrasting it with Texas.

Arkansas congressional politics

Michael Barone:

With somewhat curious timing, Arkansas Democratic Rep. Mike Ross has announced that he will not run for reelection in 2012. One year ago today, Ross was part of a congressional delegation that was 5-1 Democratic: both the state’s U.S. senators, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor, and three out of its four congressmen—Ross of the 4^th district, Marion Berry of the 1^st district and Vic Snyder of the 2^nd district—were all Democrats.
But Berry and Snyder decided to retire rather than run for reelection in 2010, and both were replaced by Republicans. Lincoln was defeated by John Boozman, then the state’s only Republican in Congress, by a breathtaking 58%-37% margin. Now Ross, who as a Blue Dog leader and member of the Energy and Commerce Committee played a high-visibility game on Obamacare, has announced he’s quitting. Ross was reelected by a solid 58%-40% margin in 2010, one of the few Blue Dogs to do so well, and although redistricting reportedly made his district a little less Democratic he obviously hs the capacity to run ahead of his party. But Arkansas, the most Democratic Southern state in the years when Bill Clinton was running, voted 59%-39% for John McCain and against Barack Obama, and no one thinks that opinion has moved in Obama’s direction since.
Ross's retirement will make it just a bit harder for Democrats to regain their House majority. Republicans are in excellent shape to pick up and hold this seat.

Debt ceiling analysis

Michael Barone on the debt talks: "What I think I saw early Friday evening was a President who saw his project of expanding America’s welfare state to European proportions meeting serious reverses. And a Speaker has determinedly sought to fulfill the mandate that voters gave his party and his chamber in November 2010 and who has taken command of the negotiations."

A proxy for 2012

Michael Barone: The popular vote for the House in an off-year election is a pretty good proxy for the vote for president in the next presidential election. That has been the trend since 1994.

What's at stake in debt ceiling debate?

Michael Barone on the debt ceiling debate:

The bedrock issue is whether we should have a larger and more expensive federal government. Over many years federal spending has averaged about 20 percent of gross domestic product.

The Obama Democrats have raised that to 24 or 25 percent. And the president's budget projects that that percentage will stay the same or increase far into the future.

In the process the national debt as a percentage of gross domestic product has increased from a manageable 40 percent in 2008 to 62 percent this year and an estimated 72 percent in 2012. And it's headed to the 90 percent level that economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have identified as the danger point, when governments face fiscal collapse.

This is a level of spending as a share of the economy Americans haven't seen since World War II. It seems more like Europe than like the America we have known.

Then we will have fall and winter

Michael Barone: What past leader does Obama most resemble? Lincoln, FDR, Carter? What about  Chauncey Gardiner, a Peter Sellers character in the 1979 movie Being There? Well, I haven't seen that movie, but you may want to read the article.

Liberal nostalgia

Michael Barone: Liberals are nostalgic for World War II.

So the Obama Democrats, partially successful in expanding the size and scope of government, largely unsuccessful in reviving private-sector unions, are on the defensive politically. As Mr. Levison and other liberals recognize, most Americans don’t accept Keynesian economics and don’t favor expansion of government as they did during the Midcentury Moment. Thus the Democrats’ 2012 campaign strategy seems aimed more at discrediting Republican alternatives than seeking endorsement of their own policies.
But there is a more fundamental contradiction here, for the Midcentury Moment’s confidence in big institutions was inextricably connected with an acceptance of a cultural uniformity that almost all of today’s liberals, and probably most non-liberals, would find unacceptable.

Business in on a hiring strike

Michael Barone explains why all the economic indicators are down and will stay down.

The signal was clear. Obama had already ignored his own deficit reduction commission in preparing his annual budget, which was later rejected 97-0 in the Senate. Now he was signaling that the time for governing was over and that he was entering campaign mode 19 months before the November 2012 election. People took notice, especially those people who decide whether to hire or not. Goldman Sachs's Current Activity Indicator stood at 4.2 percent in March. In April -- in the middle of which came Obama's GW speech -- it was 1.6 percent. For May it is 1 percent.
"That is a major drop in no time at all," wrote Business Insider's Joe Weisenthal.
After April 13 Obama Democrats went into campaign mode. They staged a poll-driven Senate vote to increase taxes on oil companies.
They began a Mediscare campaign against Ryan's budget resolution that all but four House Republicans had voted for. That seemed to pay off with a special election victory in New York's 26th Congressional District.
The message to job creators was clear. Hire at your own risk. Higher taxes, more burdensome regulation and crony capitalism may be here for some time to come.
One possible upside is that economic bad news may no longer be "unexpected." Another is that voters may figure out what is going on.

This is so much like the Great Depression that it's not funny.

Paul Ryan for president?

Michael Barone: "My guess is that Paul Ryan is giving serious consideration to running for president." The Paul Rahe post that Barone mentions is here.

Read Neil Cavuto's interview with Ryan. 

Unexpectedly shocked!

Michael Barone: The pro-Obama media is shocked, I tell you, unexpectedly shocked, by bad economic news.