Robert Samuelson on the Ryan pick

Robert Samuelson thinks the Paul Ryan pick could trigger a debate about the size and role of the federal government. I'd like to see that.

A genuine debate is long overdue. The framework for government’s expansion since 1960 has broken down. Its political appeal was that we got more government (from food stamps to Medicare to Pell grants) without a parallel increase in tax burdens. In 1960, federal taxes were 17.8 percent of the economy (gross domestic product); in 2007, before the financial crisis, they were only 18.5 percent of GDP.
Two bits of good fortune enabled this something-for-nothing swelling of government: First, annual economic growth averaged slightly more than 3 percent; second, defense spending declined as a share of the budget — in effect, lower defense spending financed higher social spending. Both props are gone.

Going down?

Robert Samuelson: " A specter haunts America: downward mobility. Every generation, we believe, should live better than its predecessor. By and large, Americans still embrace that promise." But maybe not this generation.

Job creation 101

Robert Samuelson explains how jobs are created.

A depressing Labor Day

Robert Samuelson reflects on this Labor Day and finds little good news.

On this Labor Day, there is little good news about labor. We have entered a long period of crushing unemployment and downward pressure on wages that may well transform the nation's economic and political landscape. There was no job growth in August, and the overall numbers are stupefying: 14 million unemployed; nearly 9 million part-time workers wanting full-time jobs; 6.5 million who want jobs but are so discouraged that they've given up looking and are, therefore, not counted in the official labor force. People are only gradually recognizing the magnitude of the problem.

10 budget fixes

Robert Samuelson: 10 ways to fix the budget.

It's the elderly, stupid

Robert Samuelson: The main problem that makes the budget so intractable? "It's the elderly, stupid." This is a very good article that deserves a close reading. We as a country have to face some hard choices and harder truths.

Pray and worry

Robert Samuelson: Pray for Japan, but worry about Europe.

No SOTU lesson

Robert Samuelson says that Obama had a teachable moment in the SOTU but he didn't teach anything. He should have made this point among others:

 Myth: The problem is the deficit. The real issue isn't the deficit. It's the exploding spending on the elderly -- for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid -- which automatically expands the size of government. If we ended deficits with tax increases, we would simply exchange one problem (high deficits) for another (high taxes). Either would weaken the economy; and sharply higher taxes would represent an undesirable transfer to retirees from younger taxpayers.

Most people get back from Social Security and Medicare far more than they put in. I think I have, though I don't have definite figures on my payroll taxes. It does not take long.

Robert Samuelson reviews the 1960s.

Robert Samuelson ponders the dilemma between the baby boomer generation, whose leading edge is now reaching retirement age, and the costs of Social Security, Medicare, etc.

Robert Samuelson looks at parallels that point to a new Depression.

Robert Samuelson: The crisis in Greece is the welfare state's death spiral. "This isn't Greece's problem alone, and that's why its crisis has rattled global stock markets and threatens economic recovery. Virtually every advanced nation, including the United States, faces the same prospect. Aging populations have been promised huge health and retirement benefits, which countries haven't fully covered with taxes. The reckoning has arrived in Greece, but it awaits most wealthy societies."

Robert J. Samuelson: Obamacare has sown the seeds of a future budget crisis.

Robert Samuelson: "If not now, when? If not us, who?" Obama asks. The answer is: It's not now, and it's not "us." Pass or not, Obama's proposal is the illusion of "reform," not the real thing.

Robert Samuelson: Medical spending threatens everything else, including our future. This is very depressing.

President Obama's critics sometimes say that he is engineering a government takeover of health care or even introducing "socialized medicine" into America. These allegations are wildly overblown. Government already dominates health care, one-sixth of the economy. It pays directly or indirectly for roughly half of all health costs. Medicine is pervasively regulated, from drug approvals to nursing-home rules. There is no "free market" in health care.
What's happening is the reverse, which is more interesting and alarming: Health care is taking over government. Consider: In 1980, the federal government spent $65 billion on health care; that was 11 percent of all its spending. By 2008, health outlays had grown to $752 billion -- 25 percent of the total, one dollar in four....

Obama's health-care proposals may be undesirable (they are), but it's mindless to oppose them -- as many Republicans do -- by screaming that they'll lead to "rationing." Almost everything in society is "rationed," either by price (if you can't afford it, you can't buy it) or explicit political decisions (school boards have budgets). Health care is an exception; it enjoys an open tab. The central political problem of health-care nation is to find effective and acceptable ways to limit medical spending. 

Democrats, Samuelson says, are no better.

Robert Samuelson: Health insurance reform is an assault on the young. I've always believed that once people learn what health-care reform involves they won't like it at all.

Robert Samuelson: "In reality, the public plan is mostly an exercise in political avoidance: It pretends to control costs and improve access to quality care when it doesn't."