All of the what-ifs in the BCS

The BCS is jumbled as a result of yesterday's upsets. 

However, the biggest winner is Arkansas, who before this weekend needed to beat LSU and win the wacky three-team SEC tiebreaker to play for the national title. Now, the Hogs might be in the BCS championship picture even if they don’t represent the West in the SEC title game.
If Arkansas beats LSU, then the SEC tiebreaker goes to a combination of BCS standings and head-to-head results. To make it as simple as possible, if there’s a three-way tie in the West, here are the most likely scenarios:
• If LSU drops behind Alabama and Arkansas in the BCS standings, Alabama would play in the SEC championship. This would be most likely to happen.
And here’s where it gets interesting. If LSU falls to No. 3 in the BCS standings, Alabama would move up to the No. 1 slot and would play for the BCS championship with a win over Georgia in the SEC title game.
But how far up would Arkansas move? Let’s assume the Hogs are No. 3 in the BCS standings on Sunday night — moving past Oklahoma State, Oregon and Oklahoma — then they’d probably move up to No. 2 with a win over LSU and would be assured of a spot in the BCS championship no matter what happens in the SEC title game.
To make this even more bizarre, let’s say Arkansas beats LSU and moves up to No. 1, Alabama stays at No. 2 and LSU drops to No. 3. Then Alabama would STILL win the tiebreaker and play for the SEC championship with a chance to go to the BCS championship to play the Hogs in a rematch of the Tide's 38-14 thumping on September 24.
• If both Arkansas and LSU finish ahead of Alabama in the BCS standings as of next Sunday night, Arkansas would play in the SEC championship and No. 2 LSU would be all but assured of a spot in the BCS championship unless Oklahoma State makes a huge jump up after playing Oklahoma on December 3. Don’t expect this scenario to happen; the human pollsters aren’t going to drop Alabama lower than No. 2.
• If Arkansas doesn’t jump past LSU and Alabama and finishes third in the BCS standings (regardless of whom is higher in the BCS standings between the Tigers and Tide), LSU would play in the SEC championship. Don’t expect this to happen, either. Projected BCS No. 3 Arkansas would almost certainly move up with a win over LSU.
But LSU is probably going to beat Arkansas.